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Registered: 07-2007
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[13 SB] NINJABlog, 1 Jul


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If this column sucks, it's not my fault. I was busy... well, being busy.

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Good day, and welcome to the 1 Jul 13 edition of the NINJABlog where we look at the data of games played through Week 12 of the CAN season. This look takes into account games played through 29 Jun and posted as of 30 Jun. If you posted afterwards, the data will be included in the next version.

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UPDATED MATRICS
Overall League Stats
* 688 Games Reported (71%)
* 12.16 Runs per Team Game
* 7.9 Average margin of Victory

Below is a plot looking at the data that I have through ten full regular seasons plus this season's partial data. You'll find the average runs per team game and the average margin of victory. It's a rather boring plot, to tell you the truth - I was hoping for more insight. Your range for runs per team game go from 13.27 (2007) to 11.81 (2011). Your margin of victory ranges from a high of 8.83 (again 2007) to a low of 7.24 (2001). Wow, 2007 just seemed to be a pretty blah season, eh? Oh wait, that's right... Maryland won it that season. Yeah, buddy!

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Link to PDF

The PDF link is here. Please copy and paste the following:

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B-nxEhRF3oalNzhWMkpTbF9Ndk0/edit?usp=sharing

The PDF is on Google Docs. No, you don't need a Google account in order to access it. I have no idea why you can't get to it from your work place. No, I can't email it to you.

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COLLEY RATINGS
The defending champs, Georgia, are atop the Colley ratings for a third straight week (and fifth overall). Yes, they're above two teams that are currently undefeated. However, much like last season, they've played an awfully tough schedule. Illinois and Richmond have the 27th and 69th (!) rated schedules, respectively.

Yeah, seriously... 69th?!? Other than Ohio, no one on their schedule is better than 34th. They're got a great opportunity for the overall 1-seed, but will they crack under any sort of pressure once the tourney rolls around?

No one has really made a significant move up in the last week (recall that the last column is the change from last week, even if I didn't publish them).

However, let's look at Penn State and Tulane. The Green Wave dropped 10 spots after dropping a weekend doubleheader extending their losing streak to five. Penn State has dropped a whopping 15 spots after a bad week to two good teams. Kinda sucks, Nittany Lions... the numbers aren't kind.

Which leads to another question - is Catholic for real? They've been top ten for seven of 12 weeks. Their schedule has been middle of the road and they have no big wins to speak of (though beating Penn State isn't a non-trivial win). It'll be interesting when they take on American. As a first-season team, they've got a solid chance at a Pot 1 seed.

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DIVISION-OLOGY
It looks that four divisions have been clinched - Richmond, Virginia Tech, Central Florida, and early-season starlet Texas A&M have punched their tickets to Pot 1. Let's take a look at the other five.

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Toddlers & Tiaras
American is currently leading with a half game lead over both Xavier and Villanova. The three teams have split the meetings amongst them. If all three win out, we go to best win. American could snag a BIG win if they defeat Catholic coming up; likewise, Villanova has Maryland still left. X may be left out in the cold as MD pulled a rabbit out of their backsides.

I do realize that Notre Dame and Hopkins both have one loss, as well. However, the odds are stacked against either making a late run. Feel free to make me eat crow. Hey, Mandich, go post this on a bulletin board!

Laguna Beach
Speaking of the Fightin' Cardinals, they did Maryland a HUGE favor by beating Penn State. Now, Maryland controls their destiny with a final division game against an under-achieving Syracuse squad. A loss there, and we would go to best win between the three schools. Maryland has a great win over X and Catholic would have an opportunity against American. PSU, like X above, might be on the outside looking in.

Honey Boo Boo
Tufts is your current leader with a game lead over Georgia and the head-to-head tie-break. Vandy and surprising Providence are still in the mix with games to come against Tufts... a 13 Jul sweep by the Jumbos will give them the division.

Southie Rules
It's still relatively early in the division slate, but Illinois and BC are tied atop and have not played each other. North Carolina still lurks just a half game back having played neither front runner.

Real Housewives of DC
Georgetown is in a good position as they sit top the division with the head-to-head over Minnesota. However, Florida, just a half game back, has the Hoyas at the end of the season. Further, Delaware has only played a single division game. Things are very much up in the air.

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TOURNEY WATCH
Pot 1 is shaping up to be interesting, as it always is. With regards to division winners, Richmond is in line for the #1 seed with their 12-0 record. Illinois is the only other team that could potentially tie a perfect season, but CAN's favorite weatherman doesn't seem to want to entertain the notion. American and Maryland, if they win out, would follow.

With only nine divisions, your best non-division winner will be seeded tenth... which would give a potentially great matchup for the overall 2-seed in the quarterfinals. What this also means is that if any division winner stumbles and does not win their group, the overall 1-seed might get that best non-division winner. Eesh.

Who's in that spot right now? Georgia. Eesh^2.

Below is a graphic that looks at all teams' Win Ratios - recall, CAN doesn't use winning percentage. As mentioned above, Richmond is in pole position for the overall 1-seed, but Illinois has a whopping seven games left, most of any in CAN.

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As always (and by 'always', I mean 'both years of the pod system'), there's going to be a bit of drama as we look at each cut line. Getting into better pots holds a bit more significance since winning your pod gives you a better draw in single elims - and statistics show that being the home team is certainly an advantage (hooray, common sense!).

While there is still a lot of the season to be played, you can see where teams can easily go up or down. Actually, this section may have been awfully premature...

Anyway, some of the things that jump out at me as I look at things from 1-69:

* Catholic, Xavier, and Ohio State in Pot 1? I'm sure that no one would have called that at the beginning of the season.

* Further, Florida and Providence in pot 2? Really? on the other side of the coin... Michigan at the low end of Pot 2? If certain things break and they're in Pot 3, that's going to be an awful Pod and front-runner for the proverbial 'Pod of Death' (insert ominous music here).

* Speaking of Pot 3, how about Washington? After a rough go at it in their first season, Kaitlyn and the Huskies (which may or may not have been a '70s band) are doing great at .500. Colorado and Indiana are in unfamiliar territory in Pot 3.

* How about Wisconsin in Pot 4? Eesh! What's happened to Bucky?

* Talk about how much a year can change things... in addition to Wisco, anyone hear anything out of Massachusetts, Dayton, or Cornell? (Man, Novikoff gets married, and the Big Red go to hell in a hand basket...)

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That's all for now. Apologies for the wait, but hope that it was worth it!
1/Jul/13, 9:47 pm Link to this post Send Email to NINJA Terp   Send PM to NINJA Terp
 
JoshInDC Profile
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Registered: 07-2008
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Re: [13 SB] NINJABlog, 1 Jul


quote:

* Talk about how much a year can change things... in addition to Wisco, anyone hear anything out of Massachusetts, Dayton, or Cornell? (Man, Novikoff gets married, and the Big Red go to hell in a hand basket...)



Oh those care free days of the Summer of '12. I was a bachelor and Cornell was on a roll. Didn't catch the post and shout out the second it came out as I would have last year because it's not as fun to check just how lower tier you are as seeing if you're in the top 10.
4/Jul/13, 2:39 am Link to this post Send Email to JoshInDC   Send PM to JoshInDC
 


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