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NINJA Terp Profile
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Ruminations About Stats


With the season at an end, the compilation now begins. I wanted to ping a few things off of folks.

* Adjusted statistics. 'Adjusted' typically refers to statistics where you're compared against other players. OPS+ and WAR are the typical ones that come to mind. My question is if I should separate these into male and female categories?

As a clarification, OPS+ is basically how your OPS was relative to the tournament OPS, which is compiled using both genders. Does it make sense to compute a male's OPS+ using the male tourney OPS or are we in a gender-neutral-enough socitety that we just look at players?

I lean towards the former as a more accurate metric. Further, it would also give rise to the hilarious WARM (Wins Above Replacement Male) and WARF (Wins Above Replacement Female).

* Single and Force Out vs Fielder's Choice. Consider the following situation - person on first, less than two outs. Batter hits a ball to the outfield for an otherwise clean single. The outfielder, however, forces the runner on first out at second. Last year, I considered this reaching on a fielder's choice, because there was an out made (which happens to punish hitters who bat after slow runners). However, I've come across definitions that cause me to rethink this.

I present to you the following:
 
[MLB definition] FIELDER'S CHOICE is the act of a fielder who handles a fair grounder and, instead of throwing to first base to put out the batter-runner, throws to another base in an attempt to put out a preceding runner. The term is also used by scorers (a) to account for the advance of the batter-runner who takes one or more extra bases when the fielder who handles his safe hit attempts to put out a preceding runner; (b) to account for the advance of a runner (other than by stolen base or error) while a fielder is attempting to put out another runner; and (c) to account for the advance of a runner made solely because of the defensive team’s indifference (undefended steal).

[MLB Rule] Rule 10.06 Comment: The official scorer shall not credit the batter with a three-base hit when a preceding runner is put out at home plate, or would have been out but for an error. The official scorer shall not credit the batter with a two-base hit when a preceding runner trying to advance from first base is put out at third base, or would have been outbut for an error.

[WIKI passage on Fielder's Choice] With a runner on first base, the batter hits a ground ball back up the middle. The shortstop dives for the ball and saves it from going into center field. Realizing he has no time to throw out the batter-runner at first base, the shortstop tosses the ball to the second baseman covering second base in an attempt to force out the runner coming from first. However, the throw is not in time, and both runners are safe. Assuming the official scorer agrees the shortstop could not have thrown the batter-runner out at first with ordinary effort, this play will be scored as a base hit and not FC.

I notice that on the 10.06 comment, there is no further discussion on crediting a better with a one-base hit with an attempted put out at second. Further, I notice that the last line of the WIKI passage states the 'ordinary effort' clause which, on typical outfield plays, wouldn't result in a put out at first.

I lean towards awarding a single and then a force out.

Thoughts?
20/Aug/13, 12:32 pm Link to this post Send Email to NINJA Terp   Send PM to NINJA Terp
 
CatholicU22 Profile
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Re: Ruminations About Stats


My gut reaction is that next year we should have 2 different notations when doing the scoring. For this year, I would say any hit that results in an outfielder throwing someone out as a force out at an infield base should be a single with a force out, but any play where an infielder makes a throw to force someone out at 2nd should be a FC.

This will probably correctly account for most of the plays (esp since outfielders can't come inside the cones). Obvious ones it wouldn't account for are 1) a non-error where an infielder makes a good stop on a infield hit and has time to get the runner out at 2b when they wouldn't have had time to get the hitter at 1b, but a huge % of any play by an infielder is going to be the standard grounder where they choose to take the force at a lead base instead of 1st. also 2) a bloop "hit" where the runner is caught in limbo and forced out because they were unsure about a catch.

So, basing it on who the throw came from isn't perfect, but is probably much more accurate if you are just trying to judge from existing scorebooks. You could have the two options for scorers next year to increase the accuracy going forward.

No opinion on separating or not separating OPS+ I would lean towards not separating, but whatever.

Last edited by CatholicU22, 20/Aug/13, 1:21 pm
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neutron man Profile
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Re: Ruminations About Stats


I agree with awarding a hit on a ball to the outfield after which a force out occurs--certainly with two outs. CatholicU22 is right about situations where a runner on 1st has to wait to see if it is a catch, but since that would be difficult to discern from a scorebook and would also introduce some new subjectivity, I would score all hits to the outfield the same.
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Re: Ruminations About Stats


Quoting MLB Rule 10.05(b)(1): The official scorer shall not credit a base hit when a runner is forced out by a batted ball, or would have been forced out except for a fielding error.
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Re: Ruminations About Stats


I would score it as a hit and a force out. The outfielder isn't choosing between outs, the outfielder is taking an opportunity (due to a slow runner or getting caught in limbo) that is provided to them. I see this as a similar scoring to giving a batter a hit who is thrown out while trying to stretch that hit another base.

---
I'm just a speed bump in the outfield.
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NINJA Terp Profile
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Re: Ruminations About Stats


quote:

JBell9 wrote:

Quoting MLB Rule 10.05(b)(1): The official scorer shall not credit a base hit when a runner is forced out by a batted ball, or would have been forced out except for a fielding error.



I saw that too - but wasn't sure if that specifically applied to softball since there are differing circumstances. Scaling the restraining cones to MLB, you'd have a LF at 215' from the plate. There's NO ONE that would be ballsy enough to play that shallow.

That being said, I did additional research and found the following:

http://iscoreforum.com/baseball/viewtopic.php?f=15&t=3949

There're citations for ASA and ISF - so I can put the book closed on this since the preceeding runner can, indeed, screw over the batter on such a situation. Seems unfair, but apparently, thems the rules.
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Re: Ruminations About Stats


How are things going with the compiling of the tournament stats?
9/Oct/13, 8:26 am Link to this post Send Email to apd09   Send PM to apd09
 
NINJA Terp Profile
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Re: Ruminations About Stats


Succinctly, as it currently stands, there will be no Tournament Summary this year.

I don't have the scorebooks to process because Nick Walkosak from Arizona (the former CAN-wide Sports Chair) stole eight of the ten official tournament scorebooks from the tourney and is refusing to return them.

He stole them, in part, because of an incident between the two of us that happened at the '12 softball championship game (the one where he threw a binder at a softball commish and walked out on the tourney?). [Full disclosure, with the benefit of hindsight, I would have treated that situation a bit differently... but not much differently.] When we talked after this season's tournament, he told me that he's upset with me, and has been upset with me since then (a YEAR... over a rec league softball tourney). Further, he'd been thinking the entire year about how to get back at me (again... for a YEAR, over a rec league softball tourney). He concluded that the only way that he could get back at me was to steal the scorebooks to "cause me pain."

Yes, he actually said "cause me pain."

Who says that outside of a cheezy B-movie (or possibly Rocky III)? On a slightly serious note, anyone else concerned that someone who could be this pissed over a year after a rec league softball tourney might be that guy you read about in a breaking news dispatch that goes postal?

Anyway, I almost drove off the BW Parkway at the absurdity of the statement. Not sure how his brain is wired, but causing me to NOT spend ~200 hours in front of my computer and, instead, allowing me to spend it with my wife and supporting other endeavors isn't really causing me any pain whatsoever. Additionally, when asked what the end-game was or a possible resolution was, he responded that he didn't know (thank god that that year of seething was fruitful).

In addition to stealing the physical books, he's also robbing the CAN softball community at large of a resource that brings a lot of enjoyment. People are interested in it and they just won't get it. I feel especially for the volunteers that I had to help me with processing... they were uber stoked. Despite pointing this out to Nick, it didn't make any sort of effect.

Anyway, after our initial conversation, Nick asked me to re-engage and close with him in September so that he could figure out his thoughts and "chill out". I closed with him at the end of the month asking if he had come up with a resolution and he responded that he hadn't thought about it much at all.

So... you have a bruised ego, and thus act like a 40/50-year old child who's taking someone else's ball and going home. Then you ask me to close with you because you need time to think ... and then don't think about it?

* slow clap *

I tried to be patient with him, but I see no resolution ahead and have better things to do with my time. I've asked for help from folks in charge at CAN (they've been apprised of my lack of progress the entire way), but haven't received anything concrete as of yet. I'm under the impression that people will talk to Nick and if they can hammer out a resolution, great. I am still willing to process them if I receive them.
10/Oct/13, 9:34 am Link to this post Send Email to NINJA Terp   Send PM to NINJA Terp
 
Dave O7 Profile
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Re: Ruminations About Stats


Eddie....you're kidding, right?
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NINJA Terp Profile
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Re: Ruminations About Stats


quote:

Dave O7 wrote:

Eddie....you're kidding, right?



Sadly, no.
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