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longshanks78 Profile
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2015 Luckiest Team


This is based on the Pythagorean expectation, which is a formula that calculates what a team's winning percentage should be based on runs scored and runs allowed and then compares that percentage to a teams actual winning percentage.

Arizona State is the luckiest team as the calculation expected them to have a 67.1% winning percentage (based on their offensive and defensive scoring) when they actually had a 85.7% winning percentage.

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30/Jul/15, 1:54 pm Link to this post Send Email to longshanks78   Send PM to longshanks78
 
NINJA Terp Profile
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Re: 2015 Luckiest Team


Appreciate the fun stats, John!
31/Jul/15, 7:47 am Link to this post Send Email to NINJA Terp   Send PM to NINJA Terp
 
longshanks78 Profile
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Re: 2015 Luckiest Team


quote:

NINJA Terp wrote:

Appreciate the fun stats, John!



Doesn't come close to what you used to do, but it was fun trying emoticon
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WilliamTheChild Profile
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Re: 2015 Luckiest Team


So does this mean that the teams closest to ZERO luck won the games they SHOULD have won, and those near the end of the list are the unluckiest teams?

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---billyk
5/Aug/15, 2:55 pm Link to this post Send Email to WilliamTheChild   Send PM to WilliamTheChild
 
longshanks78 Profile
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Re: 2015 Luckiest Team


quote:

WilliamTheChild wrote:

So does this mean that the teams closest to ZERO luck won the games they SHOULD have won, and those near the end of the list are the unluckiest teams?



Yes. Although this is a very basic formula and only looks at total runs scored and allowed over the entire season and compares that to your actual record.

For example a team that was 7-7 and lost all of their 7 games by 1 run each and won their other 7 by 10+ each would be an unlucky team. You would think if your run differential was 5+, then you would have better than a .500 record.

When you look at UGA and Pitt both going undefeated, I would think everyone would say you have to have a little bit of luck to win every game. The exact opposite can be said for Boston.

Last edited by longshanks78, 5/Aug/15, 3:52 pm
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