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NINJA Terp Profile
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First Weekend Predictions


Hi all,

It's good to have something to share with you all - it's been a while.

In reading FiveThirtyEight's Women's World Cup Preview, they simulated the entire tournament 20,000 times in order to see who bubbled to the top. Their methodology [http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-our-womens-world-cup-model-works/] was pretty intriguing, so I decided to tweak it to see if I could apply it to CAN softball.

In summary: Leveraging my Offensive and Defensive Relativity metrics, I was able to come up with subsequent offensive and defensive ratings - essentially, how many runs each team is expected to score and give up. Specifically, I combined the last four 'competitions' and weighed them as follows: ('13 Tourney * 0.8), ('14 Season * 0.1), ('14 Tourney * 1), ('15 Season * 0.2). Why did I emphasize the tourney performances so much? Well, teams are more who they actually are in tourneys - you're bringing the best of who you have and compete against other folks' best.

When I simulated two teams playing each other, I averaged out what a team was expected to score and what their opponents were expected to give up. I then took this value and divided them by 7 to get an average per-inning value. For example, the expected score of Ohio-OSU is 11.12 to 9.62.

I then used a Poisson distribution to see how many runs each team would score during an at bat and let the game progress from there. Continuing the example, OSU jumped out to a 4-2 lead after 3.5 innings, but Ohio came back with 2 in the 4th and 5th to win 6-4 in this iteration.

Admittedly, this inadvertently normalizes some of the really good and really bad teams - these values are based on 7-inning games and teams on either end of the spectrum typically don't play 7-inning games. Take, for example, Maryland last tourney. I believe that we batted only 25 innings out of a possible 35.

Anyway, after all six games in a group were played, I applied the relevant tie-breakers as necessary and found who finished first and second.

I ran each group 1,000 times and my results are below. Please note that the guts of this is all about relative performance to a perceived mean. Some of the results certainly raised my eyebrow (like how Group J is Central Florida's to lose; Group Q might be a total crap shoot). Of course, who knows about teams like Arizona State and Delaware who are having banner years? Is it regular season inflation? Or are they for realz?

Columns indicate percentage times winning the group, finishing 2nd, and advancing to the second weekend.
3/Aug/15, 10:10 pm Link to this post Send Email to NINJA Terp   Send PM to NINJA Terp
 
NINJA Terp Profile
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Re: First Weekend Predictions


Image
3/Aug/15, 10:11 pm Link to this post Send Email to NINJA Terp   Send PM to NINJA Terp
 
MadDog2727 Profile
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Re: First Weekend Predictions


Good stuff - these numbers seem pretty realistic to me. Very curious to see if teams like ASU & UD have really improved their tournament play.

Here's a hypothetical 2nd weekend single elimination bracket, if the groups play out according to the NINJA predictions:

Image
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Iceberg Slim Profile
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Re: First Weekend Predictions


what's my blood-alcohol estimate for this weekend?
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NINJA Terp Profile
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Re: First Weekend Predictions


Ha - lots of rematches right off the bat there.

That being said, I just realized - either Pitt or UGA is going to have JMU waiting in the second round. OOF! You can go ahead and mark in Sharpie that game 301 is a must-see.
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longshanks78 Profile
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Re: First Weekend Predictions


quote:

NINJA Terp wrote:

Ha - lots of rematches right off the bat there.

That being said, I just realized - either Pitt or UGA is going to have JMU waiting in the second round. OOF! You can go ahead and mark in Sharpie that game 301 is a must-see.



Unless we both come in 2nd in our pods.
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Re: First Weekend Predictions


Or any other number of things happening not as in Eddie's simulator in the other seeds. Like if Central Florida didn't win their group or Rutgers does win their group and so on and so forth.
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NINJA Terp Profile
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Re: First Weekend Predictions


The chances of Pitt _and_ UGA not winning their pools is pretty small... likely equal to Boston qualifying for next weekend. So yeah, there's a chance.

Anyway, over lunch, I was able to finish code off to simulate everything. I'm currently 75 iterations in. The first few tourney sims were pretty intriguing - Catholic-Georgia, Florida-Virginia Tech, and Maryland-Wisco were the first three title games.

Here's to hoping for 20k iterations by tonight (like how FiveThirtyEight did their WWC sims) and an update to the graphics for tomorrow's consumption. Of particular importance... how often does Boston qualify?!?

Only three more days!
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WilliamTheChild Profile
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Re: First Weekend Predictions


What am I missing here? You say that chances of Pitt NOT winning their POD is small and yet you have them in the bracket as the #18 seed. How do you go from the #1 seed going-in to the #18 seed if you win your POD?!?!?

---
---billyk
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MadDog2727 Profile
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Re: First Weekend Predictions


I think Eddie meant the chance of NEITHER Pitt or UGA winning their groups is small.

He does have TAMU winning group A, so after the reseed, that puts Pitt at the 18 in the single elimination bracket.
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