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NINJA Terp Profile
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Registered: 07-2007
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NINJASim and the Elimination Bracket [updated with actual pic]


First off, hats off to the Tourney Committee for a job well done this past weekend. I know firsthand how much effort you put into this and I, for one, appreciate it. I don't think that I actually said thanks this weekend, so here it is - Thanks. I hope that all you board readers find a tourney committee member or commish/sports chair and shake their hand.

Second, big props to Duke. NINJASim did not have them advancing AT ALL, much less winning your groups. Props, also to UCLA (0.02%), Stanford (5.0%), and GMU (8.1%) - way to buck percentages! Great job - and it's a caution that these numbers are for entertainment purposes only.

Now, with last weekend's shenanigans behind us, I present a look ahead to this coming weekend. As with before, I've simulated the knockout bracket 20,000 times.

The results are below:

Image

Thoughts -

* Congrats to UGA on being the new favorite (SUCKAAAAAAAAAAS!!!!!!!!).

* As is typical, there's a quarter of the bracket that's absolutely BRUTAL. As such, you'll see the comparitive numbers of those teams potentially lower than what you'd normally expect. Hey, it's way easier to beat one good team than to beat two good teams back to back.

* And if there's one quarter that's awful, there's one that's.... less awful. There's something to be said when UGA has a 71.6% chance to get to the semifinals. Next favorite in that quad? Illinois at 10.8%. People think MD has an easy quarter, but UCF is continuing their strong run as they've quintupled their chances - up to 10%. After completely murdering the softball this past weekend, you're likely going to have to score to beat these guys (in fact, the last sim run had UCF 10, UGA 8 in the finals... including beating MD in the quarters... jerks).

* It's amusing to see how teams' chances of winning the tourney can change dramatically given placing in the elimination bracket. Most everyone went down due to UGA's expected dominance in their quad. The reason why UGA and JMU were comparatively lower in the pre-tourney run was because they ended up playing each other a large amount of times in the round of 16. However, with UGA-JMU only happening in the final, they've both tripled their chances (well, more than tripled).

* Given what I saw this weekend, I think that your first round games will be quite compelling. The numbers favor Cornell and Elon, but methinks that both games could go either way. Is upstart Stanford for realz? You can be sure that Pitt won't underestimate them.

Last edited by NINJA Terp, 10/Aug/15, 3:36 pm
10/Aug/15, 2:00 pm Link to this post Send Email to NINJA Terp   Send PM to NINJA Terp
 
LettheBigDawgEat Profile
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Registered: 08-2013
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posticon Re: NINJASim and the Elimination Bracket [updated with actual pic]


Suuuckas? You see the data as a curse, but clearly you aren't a meth head like me because all I see is justification to keep slamming some meth until our 3rd or 4th game when the numbers start to suggest that we have to, you know, try to win.
11/Aug/15, 9:44 am Link to this post Send Email to LettheBigDawgEat   Send PM to LettheBigDawgEat
 


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