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The Donald Profile
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Mid-season power rankings


Literally half of this regular season's game results (224 of 448 games) now have been reported. That's as good a time as any to update the "tempo free" power rankings.

Power Rankings:
1. AU
2. NW
3. Pitt
4. Tufts
5. Richmond
6. Catholic
7. G'town
8. Delaware
9. BC
10. Vandy

Best Offenses: AU, Pitt, G'town, Cornell, Michigan, Georgia, Providence, Florida, WF, Mason

Best Defenses: NW, Richmond, Tufts, Catholic, BC, Delaware, AU, G'town, AZ St, Pitt

Undefeated Teams: 6
Winless Teams: 7

Most likely to finish 14-0: AU (33%), Vandy (11%), Pitt (11%)
Most likely to finish 0-14: Clemson (66%), UConn (65%), LSU (29%), Indiana (28%)

Strongest Divisions: Tsunami, Hurricane, Derecho
Weakest Divisions: Haboob, Tornado

15/Jun/16, 9:31 am Link to this post Send Email to The Donald   Send PM to The Donald
 
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Week 11 Power Rankings


Another week has passed with an additional 5% of results in the books and 200 games to go. Here are the Week 11 Power Rankings.

Power Rankings:
1. AU
2. Tufts
3. Catholic
4. Richmond
5. Pitt
6. NW
7. ND
8. G'town
9. UGA
10. BC
11. Delaware
12. JMU
13. Wisconsin
14. Vandy
15. WF
16. 'Nova
17. Miami OH
18. Ohio
19. UMass
20. Hopkins

Best Offenses: AU, Pitt, G'town, UGA, Michigan, Providence, WF, Cornell, C Fla, Mason

Best Defenses: Tufts, Richmond, Catholic, BC, NW, AU, ND, Hopkins, JMU, Wisconsin

Undefeated Teams: 6
Winless Teams: 7

Most likely to finish 14-0: AU (30%), Vandy (13%)
Most likely to finish 0-14: Clemson (73%), UConn (64%), Indiana (34%), LSU (34%)

Strongest Divisions: Tsunami, Derecho
Weakest Division: Haboob

Last edited by The Donald, 20/Jun/16, 10:00 am
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Hammer35 Profile
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Re: Power rankings


You pretty much just pick out of a hat for these, don't you?

I mean - there's a lot in these rankings that needs justification. How do you come up with them?
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Re: Power rankings


There is no subjective bias as it's 100% driven by season-to-date results. The power rankings are adapted from the same ratings concepts employed by kenpom.com. For an explanation see this linkwith a focus on AdjO AdjD and Pythag.

FYI, an explanation for the methodology used to calculate the projections with which you also apparently have issues see this link.

No rating system is perfect. CAN softball is particularly difficult to predict since a team's lineups can vary substantially from game-to-game not to mention other variables like field location. But if you are sympathetic to the notion that not all 20-15 games are alike and consider things like how good the teams' offenses and defenses have been based on their past performances and their opponents to be meaningful then you might find these power ratings to be insightful relative to other quantitative measures such as the RPI.

Last edited by The Donald, 20/Jun/16, 12:16 pm
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Re: Week 11 Power Rankings


quote:

The Donald
Most likely to finish 14-0: AU (30%), Vandy (13%)



Not that I'm complaining, but I am curious what the calculation is for this particular projection. Specifically whether it factors in remaining opponents. The back half of our schedule is pretty brutal, with a current combined record of 43-15 including both other undefeated teams in our own division and two other 1-loss division leaders.

Vandy meanwhile not only has 3 fewer games left to play but probably an easier schedule too.

Based on that I'm guessing that is just based on year-to-date results and doesn't factor in the schedule?

Edit: Nevermind, just read in your proceeding post that it's based on season-to-date results. Answered my own question.

Last edited by AUEaglesBH, 22/Jun/16, 10:48 am
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The Donald Profile
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Re: Week 11 Power Rankings


quote:

AUEaglesBH wrote:

quote:

The Donald
Most likely to finish 14-0: AU (30%), Vandy (13%)



Not that I'm complaining, but I am curious what the calculation is for this particular projection. Specifically whether it factors in remaining opponents. The back half of our schedule is pretty brutal, with a current combined record of 43-15 including both other undefeated teams in our own division and two other 1-loss division leaders.

Vandy meanwhile not only has 3 fewer games left to play but probably an easier schedule too.

Based on that I'm guessing that is just based on year-to-date results and doesn't factor in the schedule?



This projection is based on a 10,000 trial Monte Carlo simulation that factors in BOTH actual season-to-date results AND the current win probabilities for remaining games. Not to get too technical but the simulation uses the win probabilities of which I provide snapshots of upcoming games in the Game Prediction thread and assumes a uniform distribution of game results. When I show AU as having a 30% chance of finishing at 14-0, what I'm really saying is that AU went undefeated in 3,000 of the 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations.

It is true AU has some big hurdles on your remaining schedule, but because AU is #1 the model has you as pretty big favorites in most games. Even against #3 Catholic the model has AU at a 69% win probability.

I'd agree that Vandy has arguably an easier remaining schedule than AU and with fewer games to be played, but their comparatively lower #14 ranking has 'em battling their opponents closer than AU and even has 'em as a slight underdog against Delaware -- all of which is dragging down their projected finish.

On the flip side it may appear as an oversight to leave 0-12 BU off the likely 0-14 finishers list. They are #53 in the rankings and have just 2 games remaining. But one of those games is against #64 LSU, and the Terriers have an expected 85% win probability in that game.
22/Jun/16, 11:19 am Link to this post Send Email to The Donald   Send PM to The Donald
 
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Week 12 Power Rankings


Nearly 2/3rd of the season is recorded with ~160 games to go. Here are the Week 12 Power Rankings.

Power Rankings (change):
1. AU (unchanged)
2. Tufts (unch)
3. Catholic (unch)
4. Richmond (unch)
5. NW (+1)
6. JMU (+6)
7. 'Nova (+9)
8. G'town (unch)
9. Pitt (-4)
10. Delaware (+1)
11. ND (-4)
12. Vandy (+2)
13. Ohio (+5)
14. UGA (-5)
15. Wisconsin (-2)
16. Maryland (NR)
17. Miami OH (unch)
18. BC (-8)
19. Navy (NR)
20. Illinois (NR)

Dropping Out: WF, UMass, Hopkins

Best Offenses: AU, Michigan, Pitt, G'town, UGA, Mason, Cornell, Providence, Del, C Fla

Best Defenses: Tufts, Catholic, Richmond, NW, AU, ND, BC, JMU, Ohio, 'Nova

Undefeated Teams: 2
Winless Teams: 6*

Chances of finishing 14-0: AU (40%), JMU (10%)
Most likely to finish 0-14: Clemson (82%), LSU (79%), UConn (62%), Indiana (32%)*

* Pending outcome of Jun 24 Indiana-W&M.

Last edited by The Donald, 27/Jun/16, 12:31 pm
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Week 13 Power Rankings


CAN has entered the final month of the regular season with ~140 games to go. Let's keep our fingers crossed that Mother Nature cooperates!

Here are the updated power rankings for you to mull over the long holiday weekend. Have a fun July 4th and be safe everybody!

Week 13 Power Rankings (change from last week):
1. AU (0)
2. Tufts (0)
3. Richmond (+1)
4. Catholic (-1)
5. NW (0)
6. Pitt (+3)
7. 'Nova (0)
8. JMU (-2)
9. Delaware (+1)
10. ND (+1)
11. Vandy (+1)
12. Ohio (+1)
13. G'town (-5)
14. UGA (0)
15. Maryland (+1)
16. Miami OH (+1)
17. Navy (+2)
18. BC (0)
19. Wisconsin (-4)
20. Rutgers (NR)

Dropping Out: Illinois

Best Offenses: AU, Pitt, Michigan, UGA, Mason, Cornell, Del, UNC, Providence, C Fla

Best Defenses: Tufts, Richmond, Catholic, NW, AU, ND, BC, JMU, Ohio, 'Nova

Undefeated Teams: 2
Winless Teams: 6

Chances of finishing 14-0: AU (44%), JMU (10%)
Most likely to finish 0-14: Clemson (82%), LSU (78%), UConn (64%), Indiana (60%)
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Week 14 Power Rankings


Over 80% of the season is now complete with less than 100 games remaining to be played. For the first time since these power rankings have been published we have a new #1 team...

Week 14 Power Rankings (change from last week):
1. Catholic (+3)
2. AU (-1)
3. Richmond (0)
4. Tufts (-1)
5. Pitt (+1)
6. BC (+12)
7. NW (-2)
8. JMU (0)
9. Vandy (+2)
10. Delaware (-1)
11. G'town (+2)
12. 'Nova (-5)
13. Ohio (-1)
14. UGA (0)
15. ND (-5)
16. Maryland (-1)
17. Wake Forest (NR)
18. Navy (-1)
19. Rutgers (+1)
20. Wisconsin (-1)

Dropping Out: Miami OH

Best Offenses: AU, UGA, WF, Michigan, Pitt, Providence, UMD, Catholic, Vandy, Mason

Best Defenses: Catholic, Richmond, Tufts, AU, NW, BC, Ohio, Pitt, JMU, ND

Undefeated Teams: 1 (Sorry AU)
Winless Teams: 5 (Congrats Indiana)

Chances of finishing 14-0: JMU (9.4%)
Most likely to finish 0-14: Clemson (80%), LSU (76%), UConn (64%)

Last edited by The Donald, 12/Jul/16, 8:56 am
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Re: Power rankings


Northwestern is NU, not NW. They hate it when people NW them emoticon
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