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Registered: 05-2016
Posts: 59
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Game predictions


Fri Jul 8
99% G'town 18 Wash 6
97% Ohio 17 Elon 7
98% VA Tech 18 Clemson 7
88% Richmond 10 Rutgers 6
98% ND 15 AZ 6

Sat Jul 9
99% AU 24 Mason 8
95% BC 16 Ind 8
52% Miami OH 8 BC 8
52% A&M 14 Bucknell 13
96% Catholic 16 GW 7
78% AU 10 Catholic 7
58% C Fla 17 Fla 16
96% Cornell 18 UConn 8
63% Navy 13 Cornell 11
53% Del 10 Vandy 10
77% WF 16 Duke 12
52% Fla 15 X 14
95% Catholic 16 Mason 8
56% Mason 19 GW 18
99% AU 24 GW 8
73% Ill 17 Mich 13
96% Miami OH 18 Ind 8
76% Mich 21 Mich St 16
76% Mich St 16 Ohio St 12
91% Navy 14 Yale 7
71% NC St 13 Duke 10
58% WF 12 NC St 11
63% UNC 12 NC St 11
81% UNC 16 Duke 11
97% Ill 17 Ohio St 8
94% Stanford 20 Texas 10
64% 'Cuse 8 W&M 7
95% UVA 18 Texas 8
71% 'Cuse 14 Tulane 11
54% UVA 13 Stanford 13
56% UNC 14 WF 13
59% W&M 11 Tulane 10
60% C Fla 17 X 16
78% Yale 12 UConn 9
81% Rutgers 18 Mich 12
64% Pitt 12 G'town 12
73% Tufts 10 Pitt 8
83% Tufts 10 G'town 7
7/Jul/16, 9:58 am Link to this post Send Email to The Donald   Send PM to The Donald
 
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Game predictions


Sun Jul 10 (ex post, but no results reported yet so what the heck)
99% BC 16 Clemson 5
92% Emory 16 Clemson 9
92% BC 13 Emory 7

Mon Jul 11
91% UGA 18 Bucknell 10
87% UMD 15 Penn St 9
76% ND 12 VA Tech 9
99.5% Richmond 21 GA Tech 5
99% Tufts 17 GW 6

Tue Jul 12
87% Michigan 23 GA Tech 15
60% NC State 12 Emory 11

Wed Jul 13
98% NW 18 Ind 7
88% UGA 20 Mason 12
54% 'Cuse 12 Cornell 12
84% AU 11 Ohio 7
11/Jul/16, 9:17 am Link to this post Send Email to The Donald   Send PM to The Donald
 
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Game predictions


Thu Jul 14
78% BC 11 Wisc 8
78% Bucknell 17 WVU 12
86% Fla 16 Clemson 10
96% Richmond 11 Ill 5

Fri Jul 15
72% UMD 13 Colorado 10
50.3% Providence 18 Michigan 18
93% BU 12 LSU 6
98% AU 21 C Fla 8
70% Emory 14 X 11
99% G'town 23 GA Tech 8

Last edited by The Donald, 13/Jul/16, 9:51 am
13/Jul/16, 9:42 am Link to this post Send Email to The Donald   Send PM to The Donald
 
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Game predictions


Mon Jul 18
99% Del 22 Cal 7
91% UGA 16 Stanford 9
55% BC 8 NW 7

Tue Jul 19
79% Duke 16 X 11
74% Catholic 7 Tufts 6
95% AZ 13 LSU 6

Wed Jul 20
63% Mason 17 Bucknell 14
91% Miami OH 13 UConn 7

Thu Jul 21
73% Del 12 'Cuse 9
76% NC St 14 Elon 11
51% AZ St 10 Ill 10
55% ND 12 WF 11

Last edited by The Donald, 17/Jul/16, 10:10 am
17/Jul/16, 10:09 am Link to this post Send Email to The Donald   Send PM to The Donald
 
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Game predictions


Fri Jul 22
84% C Fla 17 Mich St 11
71% Penn St 15 Indiana 12
84% Pitt 12 Colorado 8
59% Rutgers 10 VA Tech 10
86% Wash 11 LSU 7
97% G'town 17 AZ 7
99% 'Nova 20 Ohio St 6
83% Vandy 14 Cornell 10

Sat Jul 23
74% BC 11 Wisc 8
89% AZ St 16 UCLA 10
85% AU 12 JMU 8**
73% UVA 14 Dayton 11
81% JMU 11 Hopkins 7**
96% AU 13 Hopkins 6**
85% ND 16 Prov 12
57% Prov 12 W&M 11
64% WF 13 UVA 11
83% WF 17 Dayton 12
91% Del 12 W&M 7
50.5% UMass 12 AZ St 12
87% UMass 20 GW 13
90% Navy 18 GW 10

** BONUS DERECHO DIVISION WINNER PROJECTION
66.5% AU wins division IF AU>JMU AND AU>Hopkins AND JMU>Hopkins
16.1% Catholic wins division IF AU>JMU AND Hopkins>JMU
17.3% ELSE JMU wins division
21/Jul/16, 2:57 pm Link to this post Send Email to The Donald   Send PM to The Donald
 
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Game predictions


Model has predicted over 250 games with approximately 75% accuracy. Here are the remaining games on the schedule.

Mon Jul 25
99% Del 22 Cal 7
88% UGA 18 Mason 7
97% UMass 16 UConn 7

Tue Jul 26
85% UNC 16 Emory 10
81% Ohio 11 Stanford 8

Wed Jul 27
52% G'town 11 UGA 11 **
99% VATech 18 Wash 6
61% Miami OH 13 WV 11
93% Richmond 11 ND 6

** Winner is Haboob division champion.
24/Jul/16, 6:00 pm Link to this post Send Email to The Donald   Send PM to The Donald
 
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Model prediction assessment


I began tracking the predicted vs actual results from the "power rankings" model shortly before the season midpoint. Overall the model was 203-68 in predicting game winners.

A 75% accuracy rate is not bad, but it's below the 82.3% confidence level on average for the 271 predicted games. One would expect/hope that these figures are pretty cloes for a well-calibrated model. My quick reaction to this shortfall is that it speaks to the difficulty in predicting regular season CAN games with variable lineups and fields.

The model did better than expected for the more competitive games but worse than expected for the less competitive games. Oddly the worst performance was for the 65%-70% games in which the model was only 6-9. Below is a stratified summary of the results. Apologies for the column formatting -- HTML ain't my thang! LB and UB are the ranges of the predicted win percentages that make up the layers.

Correct Incorrect %Corr LB UB
45 4 91.8% 95% 100%
32 8 80.0% 90% 95%
23 4 85.2% 85% 90%
18 6 75.0% 80% 85%
20 7 74.1% 75% 80%
22 8 73.3% 70% 75%
6 9 40.0% 65% 70%
11 6 64.7% 60% 65%
11 6 64.7% 55% 60%
15 10 60.0% 50% 55%


Last edited by The Donald, 28/Jul/16, 5:44 pm
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Most surprising results


AKA My most red-faced moments!

Based on model predictions at that time (and not based on rankings as of today)

Predict: Virginia 20 George Mason 14
Actual: George Mason 24 Virginia 5

Predict: Emory 11 Georgia Tech 11
Actual: Emory 22 Georgia Tech 2

Predict: Miami (OH) 9 Boston College 8
Actual: Boston College 26 Miami (OH) 4

Predict: Miami (OH) 19 Indiana 9
Actual: Indiana 15 Miami (OH) 4

Predict: Wake Forest 13 NC State 12
Actual: Wake Forest 28 NC State 9

Predict: Washington 11 LSU 7
Actual: LSU 20 Washington 4

Predict: Notre Dame 16 Providence 11
Actual: Providence 20 Notre Dame 2



Last edited by The Donald, 28/Jul/16, 6:16 pm
28/Jul/16, 5:59 pm Link to this post Send Email to The Donald   Send PM to The Donald
 
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Best game performances


These factor in the relative strength of the opponents.

Best overall game performances
1. Wake Forest for their 28-7 win over NC State
2. Catholic for their 17-5 win over American
3. Richmond for their 31-0 win over Georgia Tech
4. Providence for their 20-2 win over Notre Dame
5. George Mason for their 24-5 win over Virginia

Best offensive performances
1. Wake Forest for their 35-20 win over George Mason
2. American for their 33-1 win over Bucknell
3. American for their 33-8 win over West Virginia
4. Boston for their 35-14 win over LSU
5. Wake Forest for their 28-7 win over NC State

Best defensive performances
1. Emory for their 1-0 loss to Wake Forest (or was this a forfeit?)
2. Syracuse for their 3-2 win over Richmond
3. Illinois for their 2-1 loss to Richmond
4. Georgetown for their 18-3 win over Georgia
5. James Madison for their 22-1 win over Florida
6. Catholic for their 17-5 win over American
28/Jul/16, 6:29 pm Link to this post Send Email to The Donald   Send PM to The Donald
 


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