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NINJA Terp Profile
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NINJAmetrics (23 Jul)


All numbers are through games published as of 1100, 23 Jul. I realize that there are games that I haven't included - most likely, it's due to the scores being updated after I run numbers and me not bothering to go back. Then again, Rob thinks I'm a dolt.

I will go back after the regular season is completed and verify that all teams have 14 games (assuming that we get them all in). Expect the final regular season 'metrics to come out next Monday.

Selected games can be run - don't think that I'm going to be able to do all of them this week.

That being said...

In this edition:
* OR and DR
* Expected Win Percentage
* ISR

Let's see if I can get it all in one post....

Legend:
W - Adjusted Wins
L - Adjusted Losses
Win % - Adjusted Win Percentage
RS - Runs Scored
RA - Run Against
Pyth% - Expected Win Percentage
Delta - Difference
OR - Offensive Relativity
O# - OR Rank
DR - Defensive Relativity
D# - DR Rank
ISR(10) - Iterative Strength Rating via 10 iterations

Teams                  W  L Win % RS  RA  Pyth%  Delta   OR   O#   DR   D# ISR (10)

 American 14 0 1.000 250 106 0.848 (0.152) 5.4 4 (6.0) 5 125.2
 Arizona 8 5 0.615 169 172 0.491 (0.124) (0.9) 43 0.6 35 104.4
 Arizona State 3 10 0.231 111 235 0.182 (0.048) (5.3) 64 5.0 59 89.3
 Auburn 10 4 0.714 228 124 0.772 0.057 3.4 13 (5.1) 6 111.3
 Baylor 6 7 0.462 161 189 0.421 (0.041) (0.7) 41 1.9 46 95.8
 Boston College 8 5 0.615 200 169 0.583 (0.032) 2.2 15 (0.3) 31 107.2
 Boston University 2 11 0.154 127 233 0.229 0.075 (4.1) 59 5.1 60 82.1
 Bucknell 5 7 0.417 151 174 0.430 0.013 (0.1) 34 0.9 37 97.0
 California 4 8 0.333 150 173 0.429 0.096 (1.5) 46 1.5 44 92.5
 Carnegie Mellon 6 7 0.462 174 153 0.564 0.102 0.3 29 (2.0) 21 99.6
 Clemson 4 8 0.333 149 223 0.309 (0.025) 0.7 24 5.6 62 92.2
 Colorado 6 7 0.462 162 160 0.506 0.045 (1.0) 44 (0.5) 29 95.9
 Connecticut 4 8 0.333 160 191 0.412 0.079 (0.1) 33 3.5 52 90.3
 Cornell 7 6 0.538 130 129 0.504 (0.035) (4.2) 60 (2.9) 15 98.6
 Dayton 3 11 0.214 171 234 0.348 0.134 (0.7) 40 3.9 54 86.0
 Delaware 2 12 0.143 128 256 0.200 0.057 (4.5) 61 6.1 65 80.5
 Duke 7 6 0.538 151 144 0.524 (0.015) (1.1) 45 (2.5) 16 104.9
 Embry-Riddle 1 13 0.071 107 230 0.178 0.106 (5.3) 63 3.7 53 80.1
 Emory 8 6 0.571 215 145 0.687 0.116 2.8 14 (3.0) 13 100.5
 Florida 9 3 0.750 167 140 0.587 (0.163) 0.4 27 (1.8) 23 111.6
 Florida State 5 8 0.385 164 178 0.459 0.075 (0.8) 42 1.3 39 91.0
 George Mason 6 5 0.545 132 121 0.543 (0.002) (1.7) 48 (2.2) 18 100.9
 George Washington 3 9 0.250 147 221 0.307 0.057 (0.1) 32 5.4 61 89.7
 Georgetown 7 7 0.500 175 186 0.470 (0.030) (0.3) 37 (0.1) 32 101.0
 Georgia 4 10 0.286 190 243 0.379 0.094 0.6 25 4.7 58 88.3
 Georgia Tech 5 6 0.455 137 171 0.391 (0.064) (0.4) 38 2.8 50 100.7
 Illinois 5 6 0.455 104 143 0.346 (0.109) (3.4) 55 (0.7) 28 100.6
 Indiana 7 6 0.538 174 170 0.512 (0.027) 0.1 31 0.7 36 100.7
 James Madison 10 2 0.833 179 121 0.686 (0.147) 1.8 18 (2.9) 14 116.6
 Johns Hopkins 2 11 0.154 133 194 0.320 0.166 (2.1) 50 1.5 43 86.4
 Marquette 3 11 0.214 140 206 0.316 0.102 (3.6) 56 1.5 42 87.1
 Maryland 11 1 0.917 247 41 0.973 0.057 7.7 1 (9.1) 1 118.5
 Massachusetts 4 8 0.333 135 210 0.292 (0.041) (3.0) 54 5.7 63 88.3
 Michigan 9 4 0.692 177 146 0.595 (0.097) 1.1 22 (2.1) 20 111.3
 Michigan State 8 4 0.667 211 151 0.661 (0.005) 5.4 5 (0.4) 30 109.7
 Minnesota 13 1 0.929 233 115 0.804 (0.124) 3.4 12 (4.1) 11 119.3
 Navy 9 5 0.643 153 160 0.478 (0.165) (1.8) 49 (1.6) 25 107.0
 North Carolina 7 6 0.538 189 152 0.607 0.069 0.2 30 (1.9) 22 103.0
 North Carolina State 3 9 0.250 141 217 0.297 0.047 0.5 26 4.4 57 88.7
 Notre Dame 9 5 0.643 199 144 0.656 0.013 0.4 28 (2.1) 19 105.3
 Ohio 12 2 0.857 251 122 0.809 (0.048) 4.5 7 (4.2) 10 116.5
 Ohio State 1 13 0.071 121 301 0.139 0.068 (3.8) 58 8.7 66 81.3
 Penn State 9 4 0.692 192 118 0.726 0.034 1.8 19 (4.3) 9 109.7
 Pennsylvania 1 9 0.100 77 150 0.209 0.109 (5.9) 65 2.1 47 77.6
 Pittsburgh 14 0 1.000 273 73 0.933 (0.067) 6.5 2 (8.6) 2 124.4
 Providence 1 13 0.071 120 269 0.166 0.095 (3.8) 57 5.9 64 81.9
 Purdue 3 8 0.273 133 161 0.406 0.133 (0.3) 35 1.3 40 92.5
 Richmond 11 3 0.786 238 160 0.689 (0.097) 3.6 9 (1.3) 27 111.5
 South Carolina 4 9 0.308 151 212 0.337 0.029 (2.1) 51 4.1 55 88.9
 Stanford 6 6 0.500 175 194 0.449 (0.051) 0.9 23 3.3 51 100.1
 Syracuse 2 9 0.182 122 171 0.337 0.155 (1.7) 47 2.3 49 86.4
 Tennessee 7 6 0.538 168 180 0.466 (0.073) (0.3) 36 1.4 41 100.9
 Texas 6 5 0.545 176 128 0.654 0.109 3.8 8 (1.6) 26 102.4
 Texas A&M 8 4 0.667 162 120 0.646 (0.021) 1.2 21 (4.4) 8 110.7
 Tufts 6 5 0.545 173 152 0.564 0.019 3.5 10 0.2 34 106.8
 Tulane 2 9 0.182 71 193 0.119 (0.063) (6.4) 66 4.3 56 85.5
 Vanderbilt 10 4 0.714 164 136 0.593 (0.122) (2.6) 53 (2.4) 17 106.7
 Villanova 13 1 0.929 253 88 0.892 (0.036) 5.6 3 (7.3) 4 122.4
 Virginia 8 5 0.615 161 193 0.410 (0.205) (0.6) 39 1.2 38 108.4
 Virginia Tech 12 1 0.923 243 86 0.889 (0.034) 5.4 6 (7.5) 3 123.4
 Wake Forest 9 3 0.750 194 105 0.773 0.023 3.4 11 (5.0) 7 114.5
 West Virginia 8 5 0.615 182 142 0.622 0.006 2.1 17 (3.1) 12 107.1
 William & Mary 9 5 0.643 191 157 0.597 (0.046) 1.5 20 (1.7) 24 108.6
 Wisconsin 6 7 0.462 195 186 0.524 0.062 2.1 16 2.2 48 98.6
 Xavier 6 8 0.429 152 187 0.398 (0.031) (2.3) 52 (0.0) 33 97.0
 Yale 3 11 0.214 113 207 0.230 0.015 (5.1) 62 1.7 45 86.2
23/Jul/07, 2:17 pm Link to this post Send Email to NINJA Terp   Send PM to NINJA Terp
 
Rob O Profile
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Re: NINJAmetrics (23 Jul)


quote:

NINJA Terp wrote:

Then again, Rob thinks I'm a dolt.



Only when it comes to judging a fly ball. When it comes to math and these rankings, you're obviously a genius. Or you just have too much time on your hands. Take your pick.
23/Jul/07, 2:33 pm Link to this post Send Email to Rob O   Send PM to Rob O
 
Hollywood8JMU Profile
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Re: NINJAmetrics (23 Jul)


how about some predictions for md/vt, jmu/psu, and md/texas?

also - I think some of the games that were made up after being cancelled due to weather were posted on the date they were originally scheduled rather than when they're made up. I think that's what happened with our make up with mason - played last wednesday, but I think it's posted on 7/10 on the CAN site and never made it on the home page like the other games last week. i assume that's the game missing from us being 10-2 rather than 11-2
23/Jul/07, 2:44 pm Link to this post Send Email to Hollywood8JMU   Send PM to Hollywood8JMU
 
NINJA Terp Profile
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Re: NINJAmetrics (23 Jul)


quote:

Hollywood8JMU wrote:

how about some predictions for md/vt, jmu/psu, and md/texas?

also - I think some of the games that were made up after being cancelled due to weather were posted on the date they were originally scheduled rather than when they're made up. I think that's what happened with our make up with mason - played last wednesday, but I think it's posted on 7/10 on the CAN site and never made it on the home page like the other games last week. i assume that's the game missing from us being 10-2 rather than 11-2




Yeah - you're right about the games that I don't have. I just don't bother looking back, but like I said, I'll try to upate everything when the regular season ends. There are several teams that have only 10 games under their belt in my list - I'm sure that's probably not the case with anyone. The only game that I know that I'm not including is Wake Forest - Penn (since Penn forfeited).


Regarding a few predicitions from the fancy schmancy spreadsheet....

MARYLAND 14:9 Virginia Tech
James Madison 11:12 PENN STATE
MARYLAND 19:7 Texas
23/Jul/07, 3:04 pm Link to this post Send Email to NINJA Terp   Send PM to NINJA Terp
 
Hollywood8JMU Profile
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Re: NINJAmetrics (23 Jul)


wow - the 3rd time in a row we're predicted to lose by 1 run. oh well. thanks for the numbers
23/Jul/07, 3:23 pm Link to this post Send Email to Hollywood8JMU   Send PM to Hollywood8JMU
 
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Re: NINJAmetrics (23 Jul)


No way we beat VT by 5 runs and I'd be shocked if that many runs were scored. I think the last 3 times we played them it was something like 9-7 (MD, Tourney last year), 9-5 (VT regular season last year), 3-2 (MD regular season year before)

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23/Jul/07, 3:58 pm Link to this post Send Email to Dave 07   Send PM to Dave 07
 
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Re: NINJAmetrics (23 Jul)


Practically speaking, Dave, I totally agree (and this is with me not knowing VT at all). We've got the two of the three best DRs and two of the top four defenses period going. Heh, then again, you also have two of the top offenses going - but I'm of the opinion that good D will usually win out against good O.
24/Jul/07, 8:14 am Link to this post Send Email to NINJA Terp   Send PM to NINJA Terp
 
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Re: NINJAmetrics (23 Jul)


quote:

Dave 07 wrote:

No way we beat VT by 5 runs and I'd be shocked if that many runs were scored. I think the last 3 times we played them it was something like 9-7 (MD, Tourney last year), 9-5 (VT regular season last year), 3-2 (MD regular season year before)



Not sure where you guys have held the reg. season games in the past, but I think in general, scores tend to be higher on the monument grounds (where the ball bounces like it's coming off concrete) than on fields with longer IF/OF grass like Ohio Drive.
24/Jul/07, 8:31 am Link to this post Send Email to ALankford   Send PM to ALankford
 
The Mountaineer Profile
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Re: NINJAmetrics (23 Jul)


quote:

NINJA Terp wrote:

Practically speaking, Dave, I totally agree (and this is with me not knowing VT at all). We've got the two of the three best DRs and two of the top four defenses period going. Heh, then again, you also have two of the top offenses going - but I'm of the opinion that good D will usually win out against good O.




There's such a thing as a "good O(bstgarten)"?


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24/Jul/07, 9:30 am Link to this post Send Email to The Mountaineer   Send PM to The Mountaineer
 
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Re: NINJAmetrics (23 Jul)


quote:

The Mountaineer wrote:

There's such a thing as a "good O(bstgarten)"?



But of course.
24/Jul/07, 9:38 am Link to this post Send Email to Rob O   Send PM to Rob O
 


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