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NINJABlog, 22 May


Image


If this post sucks, don't blame me. I was off playing in a kickball tourney in Virginia Beach and getting my drink on.

UPDATED WITH PDF LINK

-----------------

Here are the updated statistics through Week 6 of the CAN season. I'm trying an experiment and posting this edition to the TSiE boards as opposed to the CAN board. Hopefully, this will generate more discussion that hat's been going on at the CAN boards. That being said, I'm also losing formatting, so we'll revisit this next week. (And by 'we,' I mean 'I.')

Anyway, we've got all teams with TWO games played - so we can go live with all the statistics - i.e. the offensive and defensive relativity stats are valid, which is the first domino of about six dominoes that means that I can post the larger PDF.

-----------------

In this issue:
* Updated Metrics
* Bracketology
* Colley Rankings
* Looking Ahead

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UPDATED METRICS

Overall League Stats (for games posted 22 May, 1800)
* 146 of 490 games played (29.8%)
* 12.2 Runs per Team Game
* 8.93 Average Margin of Victory
* 20 One-run Games (13.7%)

Link to PDF
* https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=explorer&chrome=true&srcid=0B-nxEhRF3oalZDI3MWNiNmMtOTVkYS00YjUzLThjZDktY2FjOGUyOGZlZWU5&hl=en_US&authkey=CNzGlOUB

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BRACKETOLOGY

... uhm, yeah, it's just WAY too early still. Some divisions are pretty well on their ways, but, for example, Major League has played a total of four division games - shoot, Colorado, as a TEAM has already played 6. I'll revisit this in the next week, and we'll start this up when it becomes more relevant.

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COLLEY RANKINGS

Based on some feedback, some folks apparently have no idea what these numbers mean. As an approximation, consider these to be winning percentages based on weighted results (where everyone starts with a 1-1 record for analytical purposes). Beating a team with an above .500 rating is worth 'more' than beating a sub .500 rating - which intuitively makes sense. Likewise, the contrapositive is also true. A more complete description is available at http://www.colleyrankings.com/faq.html. No copyright infringement is intended - the use of the Colley Matrix is purely for entertainment purposes only.

Changes are from the last published NINJABlog.

I got to admit, seeing Georgia up there makes for interesting reading. As you may have noticed in the ELO Rating post, Georgia has climbed a LONG way from being a doormat to being a team that's capable of a deep run into the second weekend. One player can't take a mid-table team and make them a top-tier team - they've got depth and they're starting to learn to win. We can still point to the Rutgers upset at last season's tourney as a point of weakness - a top-level team finds a way to win that game. Perhaps they've learned their lesson? We won't know until we get to Goddard. For the time being, let's cheer on the Bulldogs as they become our third #1 team this season. Also, good luck - the target's now on your back.

Other things to note - Florida continues their malaise in this early season. Another loss leaves them at 1-3 with their only win a one-run squeaker over Ohio State. The schedule doesn't get any easier for them as they face FOUR top ten teams in their next five games. Could the Gators be looking at 2-7?

Big ups to St. Bonaventure. Their two wins this week (kinda) over Cornell and Georgia Tech helped to push them up in the rankings and they've got a somewhat manageable schedule from here on out. The numbers say that they could be .500 - that would be a fantastic achievement for a second season team. Also, props to Villanova - two impressive wins over Pitt and Georgetown on Saturday and they seem to have shaken off any impact from the Ohio loss.

Anyway, I ramble too much - to the rankings.

Image


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LOOKING AHEAD

Here is where I'll highlight some interesting games upcoming - some will be of the higher ranked variety, some will be for other nefarious reasons. All historical matchup data are from tourneys from 2002-present and regular seasons 2006-present (thanks to the CAN Archives). Spreads are developed from offensive and defensive relativities, where possible.

#12 Duke @ #20 Auburn (-2)
Auburn leads the series 1-0.
05 Tourney - Auburn W, Duke L

#28 Wisconsin @ #2 James Madison (-2)
James Madison leads the series 4-1.
17 Jun 06 - James Madison 22, Wisconsin 14
18 May 07 - James Madison 26, Wisconsin 14
07 Tourney - James Madison W, Wisconsin L
15 May 09 - Wisconsin 12, James Madison 6
30 Apr 10 - James Madison 14, Wisconsin 11

#24 Michigan @ #13 Villanova (pick)
Villanova leads the series 3-0.
03 Tourney - Villanova W, Michigan L
14 May 07 - Villanova 8, Michigan 7
14 May 09 - Villanova 14, Michigan 6

... and if I don't get metrics put up soon enough next weekend, know that this is just on the horizon...

#1 Georgia (-4) @ #4 Ohio
Assming that Ohio gets through Marquette this week, this will be the biggest game of the season, thus far. In addition to being a game that promises to be of high quality, the winner gets a leg up in the Major League division. Yeah, it's still early, but Florida already has a loss (to Ohio) and may not come out of their funk in time to challenge.

The series is tied 1-1.
15 Jul 06 - Ohio 22, Georgia 1
19 Jun 10 - Georgia 18, Ohio 6

----------------

As always, comments, questions, and discussion below. Enjoy!

Last edited by NINJA Terp, 23/May/11, 5:34 pm
22/May/11, 9:45 pm Link to this post Send Email to NINJA Terp   Send PM to NINJA Terp
 
NINJA Terp Profile
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Re: NINJABlog, 22 May


Ah, crap. I can't seem to upload to Google Docs here at the office. Looks like it'll be this evening when I put the PDF up.
23/May/11, 6:35 am Link to this post Send Email to NINJA Terp   Send PM to NINJA Terp
 
longshanks78 Profile
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Re: NINJABlog, 22 May


Looks good. Looking forward to the full version.
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BUinDC Profile
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Re: NINJABlog, 22 May


quote:

#12 Duke @ #20 Auburn (-2)
Michigan leads the series 1-0.
10 Tourney - Michigan W, Duke L



Auburn is not Michigan.

---
I'm just a speed bump in the outfield.
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DJNavy Profile
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Re: NINJABlog, 22 May


Go Navy!

---
He who laughs last...thinks slowest! Go Navy!
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oubobcat33 Profile
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Re: NINJABlog, 22 May


#1 Georgia (-4) @ #4 Ohio

The series is tied 2-2.
16 Jul 04 - Georgia 12, Ohio 4
24 Apr 05 - Ohio 12, Georgia 4
15 Jul 06 - Ohio 22, Georgia 1
19 Jun 10 - Georgia 18, Ohio 6

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NINJA Terp Profile
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Re: NINJABlog, 22 May


Thanks Rob.

Unfortunately, I've only got results from the seasons listed above to pull from. That being said, I'll add those additional games. If you've got other OU regular season results from other years, I'd love to have them to add to the database (if OU stays in the top ten, I'll likely be spotlighting them more).

Any other long-time coaches out there - I'll take whatever other regular season results that you may have before 2006.
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BUinDC Profile
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Re: NINJABlog, 22 May


I didn't realize Georgia had a team before 2006?

---
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DC Dawg Profile
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Re: NINJABlog, 22 May


quote:

BUinDC wrote:

I didn't realize Georgia had a team before 2006?



I think the team was founded in 2004 or 2005, but we weren't cool until I took over.
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