Runboard.com
You're welcome.

~TALK SMACK IN EXILE~
Revolutionizing the way we... uhm, talk smack.






runboard.com       Sign up (learn about it) | Sign in (lost password?)

 
NINJA Terp Profile
Live feed
Blog
Friends
Miscellaneous info

Administrator

Registered: 07-2007
Posts: 1183
Karma: 55 (+85/-30)
Reply | Quote
[12 SB] NINJABlog, 20 May


Image



If this column sucks, don't blame me. I was too busy having a fantastic sports weekend where both Maryland lacrosse teams got to their respective Final Fours and the [first place] Orioles took the Parkway Series.

Boom. Yeah, life's f*ing great as I type this.

-----------------

Good evening, and welcome to the 20 May 12 edition of the NINJABlog where we look at the data of games played through week 6 of the CAN season. This look takes into account games posted as of 1600, 20 May. If you posted afterwards, the data will be included in the next version. Yes, I'm looking directly at the six games over Friday/Saturday that haven't been posted. Boo to you.

-----------------

In this issue:
* Updated Metrics
* Colley Ratings
* Bracketology
* Undefeated/Unfeated
* Looking Ahead

-----------------

UPDATED METRICS

Overall League Stats
* 156 Games Played Reported (31%)
* 12.6 Runs per Team Game
* 9.0 Average Margin of Victory
* 28 One-run Games (17.9%)

The percentage of one-run games has progressively gone down the past few weeks while the average margin of victory has creeped up. I believe that this might be a function of teams' offenses getting better. I can't see team defense improving significantly over the season, but can certainly see how the swinging of bats will improve significantly over that same season. Shoot, I go from your average .200 hitter in the spring to a robust .235 as the weather gets warmer. Eat your heart out, Mendoza!

Link to PDF
Based on scheduling quirks and the weather, Arizona still only has one game of record. The PDF will be published once a second game is recorded (rumored to be 22 May, weather permitting) in order to provide statistical relevance - offensive relativity and defensive relativity are wildly off when not all teams have played two games.

-----------------

COLLEY RATINGS

Changes listed below are from the last published NINJABlog. Don't understand these? Go to www.colleyrankings.com/faq.html. No copyright infringement is intended - the use of the Colley Matrix is purely for entertainment purposes only.

American remains as the top team in CAN for a third straight week (is ashphil still doing the happy dance? Could I possibly exaggerating?!?). Target's still up on them. Welcome to the top ten, Cornell. A solid 2-0 week has them jump up 8 spots. Right behind them is Wake, which jumped up 13 spots. Other big risers include 2010 champ Texas A&M, Boston College, Bucknell (great first win), Navy, and Duke.

Falling teams are headlined by Colorado. The former #9 got swept in a weekend doubleheader versus #5 maryland and West Virginia. it could have been worse for the Buffs as they had a game versus #6 Georgia wiped out by the Secret Service. They'll stew till 2 Jun before a weekend double header against Illinois and Providence. I do not envy either of your teams.

In an interesting twist, Emory, Dayton, and Penn State all swapped places despite not playing a game. Ha... numbers, gotta love 'em!

To the fun graphic!

Image


-----------------

BRACKETOLOGY

Division Analysis
Note: Recall that CAN does standings by Win Ratio versus the traditional Win Percentage denoted in parens. Win Ratio (WR) is a sum of half your wins minus half your losses.

Given the nature of the 5-game division schedule, only teams with at least 2 division games played will be discussed.

BATMAN
Qualified Leader: Wake Forest (+1.0)
Notes: Though Central Florida also has a +1.0 WR, the Deacs have the head-to-head. Virginia Tech has only played (and won) one division game, but 25 May offers up an ol' ACC battle between the Deacs and the Hokies. If Wake wins this, they will have one hand on a Top 12 seed.

SUPERMAN
Qualified Leader: #6 Georgia (+1.0)
Notes: The top of the table clash between UGA and Colorado was postponed due to the Secret Service, but don't fret - UGA takes on Illinois this coming week with both teams currently undefeated in division play.

WONDER WOMAN
Qualified Leader: #3 Georgetown (+1.0)
Notes: Well that was anti-climactic. LSU could have takn a huge scalp down with a win over the Hoyas, but had to forfeit. Sucks, really. GU is in a run of form - now 15-straight regular season wins - and it would have been a fun test to see how real LSU was. Alas, I think that it's safe to pencil in a Top 12 seed, but you just never know.

AQUAMAN
Qualified Leader: Xavier (+1.0)
Notes: The #8 Penn State - North Carolina game result has not been posted as of press time. X still needs to play both in virtual elimination games for the division title. UNC is up first for the Musketeeers on 31 May.

CAPTAIN AMERICA
Qualified Leader: James Madison (+1.0)
Notes: Wisconsin and Pitt are a half game back in the win column and Pitt hosts the Dukes this week. JMU's already lost one game this season, could Pitt provide a second blemish?

THOR
Qualified Leader: #10 Cornell (+1.0)
Notes: The Big Red tightened their grip on the Thor division crown with a win over the rookie Utes. Only a 23 Jun trip to Georgia Tech stands between Cornell and a division title. Villanova and Kansas are hoping that the Jackets pull off an upset.

HULK
Qualified Leader: #2 Ohio (+1.0)
Notes: Rutgers failed the Bobcat test. Next up is a showdown between Michigan and Ohio on 23 May. If Ohio takes that, you may find a division title heading to Athens. (Well, figuratively... really, it's going to Rob W.'s mantle... If there was a trophy for division titles. Ahh, I'm moving on.)

IRON MAN
Qualified Leader: #1 American (+1.0)
Notes: American and Vanderbilt have a big game coming up on 25 May. A Deacs win throws the division into chaos. An Eagle win leaves the fate of the division title in the hands of... the Fightin' Walkosaks of Arizona?!?

SOLOMON GRUNDY
Qualified Leader: #4 Embry-Riddle (+2.0)
Notes: Embry-Riddle only has Richmond left on their division plate. The Spiders have just started, notching a win over Iowa this week. The next three games are also division games and if Richmond comes through, Dennick and company are looking at a winner-take-all on 16 Jul.

THE RIDDLER
Qualified Leader: Maryland (+1.5)
Notes: The Terrapins have a game lead on both Notre Dame and Minnesota, who both still have to play Connecticut. Two dates to look forward to - 15 Jun features ND hosting MD, 14 Jul features MD at MINN. If Maryland slips to either, that team will take the division. If MD slips twice, Notre Dame will take it. The Gophers will need to beat Maryland and have the Terps beat the Irish.

LEX LUTHOR
Qualified Leader: #9 Emory (+1.5)
Notes: Emory hosts California on 21 May. A win clinches a division title as they hold a game and half lead over William and Mary.

CAPTAIN COLD
Qualified Leader: Texas (+1.0)
Notes: Is it an early season fluke or do we welcome Texas back to the upper echelon of CAN? A lone loss to #1 American tells us that it might be the latter. If they win out, eyes will look at a season ending three-way with Boston College and Bucknell that should have massive seeding implications.

Non-Division Leading Pot 1 Discussion
Given the updated tournament format (that includes a group stage), instead of looking at how the division winners will line up, it's more prudent to look at the 18 teams that will comprise Pot 1. We know that the 12 teams above are in line for Pot 1, but what of the other six berths? Once we enter into the June timeframe, this will become a bit more relevant, but for gits and shiggles, let's just look at what we have now. Clearly, this is going to change a lot in the coming weeks.

13. Richmond (+2.0)
T-14. Dayton (+1.5)
T-14. Michigan (+1.5)
T-14. North Carolina (+1.5)
T-14. Penn State (+1.5)
T-14. Vanderbilt (+1.5)
T-14. Wisconsin (+1.5)

-----------------

20/May/12, 6:14 pm Link to this post Send Email to NINJA Terp   Send PM to NINJA Terp
 
NINJA Terp Profile
Live feed
Blog
Friends
Miscellaneous info

Administrator

Registered: 07-2007
Posts: 1183
Karma: 55 (+85/-30)
Reply | Quote
Re: [12 SB] NINJABlog, 20 May


UNDEFEATED / UNFEATED

Only a handful of teams have come through the regular season undefeated, James Madison in 2011 being the last. Further, none of them have ever won the title, Maryland in 2008 being the most recent undefeated team to make the final game (not that I still think about that final loss... no...). Kiss of Death? Thus far, yeah.

While there's certainly a bit of cheering against those teams to be sure, on the flip side, we don't particularly enjoy seeing teams go winless during the season. Why? Let's face it - it just plain sucks. Despite having the attitude of a beer league, it's way more fun to go 1-13 than 0-14. Quite frankly, the beer tastes a lot better.

The log5 algorithm uses the records collected over 4912 games (with a hat tip to the CAN Archives) to predict the chance of finishing undefeated/unfeated. As we are 31% of the way through the season, we will only at teams 5 games in.

#1 AMERICAN, 5-0
Notes: Big test for the Eagles as they put their #1 ranking, a chance at an undefeated season, a division crown, two turtle doves, and a partridge in a pear tree on the line in a game at Vanderbilt. A heavy slate in June shows a pretty easy road until Central Florida shows up for a chance to go 12-0.
Up Next: 25 May @ Vanderbilt (57% win chance)
log5 14-0 chance: 2%

#3 GEORGETOWN, 6-0
Notes: The schedule works out pretty favorable from here on out. They should be able to run through the rest of the schedule except for a 29 Jun date with Ohio. Shoot, both might be undefeated at that time... that would make for some interesting theater.
Up Next: 25 May v Auburn (23% win chance)
log5 14-0 chance: < 0.1%

#5 MARYLAND, 6-0
Notes: Off until the turn of the month, June sees Maryland with a division rival game and a social rival game with Notre Dame and Villanova respectively. their biggest hurdle may end up being the last... defending champions virginia Tech away at the close of the season.
Up Next: 1 Jun @ Clemson (89% win chance)
log5 14-0 chance: 7% (but really 0%... no way the Terps take out the Hokies)

#70 SOUTH CAROLINA, 0-5
Notes: The Gamecocks have stumbled out of the gates, but have games against Ohio State, Tulane, and Clemson coming up. If they fail there, they end with Delaware and NC State, both currently in the bottom ten.
Up Next: 25 May v Ohio State (45% win chance)
log5 Chance of Unfeated Season: 3%

#72 WASHINGTON, 0-5
Notes: The rookie Huskies have had two close shaves thus far with one-run losses to Elon and Wisco. The schedule sees three games against teams ranked in the 60s, including a 2 Jun matchup with fellow rookie CAN team Utah. They're certainly fun people, so they've got at least one person in the peanut gallery rooting for them. Also, there's no log5 chance here because they have no previous data.
Up Next: 2 Jun @ Rutgers/v Utah

-----------------

LOOKING AHEAD
This section will preview games between highly ranked teams. At a minimum, the combined Colley ratings of teams involved must be less than 30; other aspects, such as division implications, will also be considered.

Depending on how thoughtful I am, you may also see some historical records.

Massachusetts @ Richmond (-12)
Richmond leads all-time series 2-0.
14 May 04 - Richmond 9, Massachusetts 6
1 Jun 09 - Richmond 17, Massachusetts 6

Michigan @ #2 Ohio (-5)
Michigan leads all-time series 1-0.
20 Jul 04 - Michigan 16, Ohio 12

#1 American (-1) @ Vanderbilt
First meeting between teams.

California @ #9 Emory (-6)
First meeting between teams.
20/May/12, 6:14 pm Link to this post Send Email to NINJA Terp   Send PM to NINJA Terp
 
JoshInDC Profile
Live feed
Blog
Friends
Miscellaneous info

Registered user

Registered: 07-2008
Posts: 126
Karma: -3 (+1/-4)
Reply | Quote
Re: [12 SB] NINJABlog, 20 May


Thanks for the welcome to Cornell. ashphil may deny doing the happy dance, though I was last night when the blog came out. Though with rankings that have VT at 24 and JMU at 32 among other imperfections, I'm not dancing too crazily.

In Thor, Indiana and Georgia Tech are still as alive as Villanova and Kansas (though we clinch if we beat GT, which is last Thor game of the season barring rain, so things could be decided before then.

Indiana would be playing for the division crown against Villanova on Thursday if they didn't forfeit to Utah last week. But they're still alive if they beat Nova.

If Georgia Tech wins out (including a win over us), they would also be in contention, depending on how others finish.
21/May/12, 1:12 pm Link to this post Send Email to JoshInDC   Send PM to JoshInDC
 
NINJA Terp Profile
Live feed
Blog
Friends
Miscellaneous info

Administrator

Registered: 07-2007
Posts: 1183
Karma: 55 (+85/-30)
Reply | Quote
Re: [12 SB] NINJABlog, 20 May


Just noticed this interesting tidbit - LSU has 8 (EIGHT!) games in the month of may and will be through 12 games by the end of the month. They'll play 1 each in June and July.

It'll be interesting to see if they come out with rust at their season ending game versus Rutgers and then into the tourney. One game in 55 days (assuming no scrimmages)? Like I said, interesting.

Also, big ups to Cal last night for taking out #9 Emory. HUGE upset (on paper, at least) and makes Emory have to win at South Carolina in mid-June for the division title.
22/May/12, 9:31 am Link to this post Send Email to NINJA Terp   Send PM to NINJA Terp
 
skillsBC Profile
Live feed
Blog
Friends
Miscellaneous info

Registered user

Registered: 07-2007
Posts: 84
Karma: 1 (+2/-1)
Reply | Quote
Re: [12 SB] NINJABlog, 20 May


I can't believe it's not even Memorial Day and we're talking about division championships.
22/May/12, 2:00 pm Link to this post Send Email to skillsBC   Send PM to skillsBC
 
luketicb Profile
Live feed
Blog
Friends
Miscellaneous info

Registered user

Registered: 06-2011
Posts: 6
Karma: 0 (+0/-0)
Reply | Quote
Re: [12 SB] NINJABlog, 20 May


That's what happens with only 5 division games...no drama.
22/May/12, 2:26 pm Link to this post Send Email to luketicb   Send PM to luketicb
 


Add a reply





You are not logged in (login)
_uacct = "UA-1981555-2"; urchinTracker();