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[12 SB] NINJABlog, 26 Jun (PDF Link Updated)


Image



If this column sucks, don't blame me. I was involved in four softball games and two kickball tourneys this weekend.

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Good day, and welcome to the 26 Jun 12 edition of the NINJABlog where we look at the data of games played through Week 11 (and Monday of Week 12) of the CAN season. This look takes into account games posted as of 0933 26 Jun. If you posted afterwards, the data will be included in the next version.

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In this issue:
* Updated Metrics
* Pod-ology
* Colley Ratings
* Undefeated/Unfeated
* Five Things I Think I Think
* Looking Ahead

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UPDATED METRICS

Overall League Stats
* 342 Games Played Reported (68%)
* 12.3 Runs per Team Game
* 8.5 Average Margin of Victory
* 48 One-run Games (14.0%)

Link to PDF

The PDF link is here. Please copy and paste the following:

https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B-nxEhRF3oalYldZbm1FUHVXS3M

The PDF is on Google Docs. No, you don't need a Google account in order to access it. I have no idea why you can't get to it from your work place. No, I can't email it to you.

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COLLEY RATINGS

Changes listed below are from the last published NINJABlog. Don't understand these? Go to www.colleyrankings.com/faq.html. No copyright infringement is intended - the use of the Colley Matrix is purely for entertainment purposes only.

The top ten had a BRUTAL week. Five of the teams suffered six losses this week. Granted, one top ten team (Penn State) lost to another (Richmond) in a game that matched the top billing that it got, but let's look at the rest of the carnage -

* Then-#2 American l. Navy
* Then-#5 Virginia Tech l. Central Florida
* Then-#6 Maryland l. Clemson
* Then-#10 Georgia l. Texas A&M AND Florida

WTF?!?

Given this, our number 1 this week is... Penn State?!?

Again, WTF?!?

But there is, indeed, a logical explanation!

*insert Sherman and Peabody from Rocky & Bullwinkle*

If you'll recall last season, Georgia seemingly broke the rating system. When they lost, they were still very highly rated (if not #1 still). In this case, Penn State lost to a highly rated Richmond team and lost only 0.024 rating points. Ohio, the next highest rated team that didn't lose needed to make up 0.049 points, while not playing a game, to ascend to a first #1 ranking. However, they didn't (they, in fact, lost 0.002). That's why Penn State lives another week on top.

What the hell happened in the other games?

#5 American - how do you lose to a struggling Navy team that's a middle of the road team? Sure, they have their moments and they have their fans, but really? Were the signs there when you only beat Bucknell by 1? Was it a letdown?

#8 Virginia Tech - how do you lost to Central Florida? I'd been touting UCF all season long, but they just didn't seem to want to get over that hump. Start-stop-start-stop was how the season was going. And you got smoked at Nebraska by seventeen. SEVENTEEN! So I gave up on them. Did VT play with 8? The defending champs are so deep that their 6th person off the bench could start for most teams. The 'Blog wants to know. Where is tabbeeeeeeeee when you need him?

#9 Maryland - how do you beat a hot Villanova team and then turn around and lose to Clemson? Yes, it was the third game of a triple-header, but that's no excuse. There was water. There was food. There was beer (kudos to the Tigers who enjoyed a post game shotgun... which Pam had difficulty doing. I'll allow anyone to make a joke here as I can't... I have to coach with her... that wonderful human being known as Pam.) AWFUL. We're going back in our shell, and deservedly so.

Georgia - how do you celebrate winning the division against Illinois by not only crapping the bed, but rolling around in it too? A double-header loss without your two best players, we hear? Way to quell the 'Marieo and the Nine Dwarves' talk that's bound to come back up. (And you did so well at shooting it down!) Ah, but that's mass media for you. And by 'mass,' I mean, 'the fifty people that look at this.'

*deep breath*

Florida is your big mover of the week after wins over Georgia and WVU. Could they be hitting their stride? Could they turn back to clock to... 2010? Ohio State moves up twelve spots thanks to a 2-0 week over Cal and reeling Purdue. Clemson? Go leverage that win over MD for a ten slot bump. By the way, I punched a box of Frosted Flakes in the grocery store Sunday afternoon. Totes unrelated. Also, UCF decides to prove me wrong and reside now just outside of the top ten.

Arizona was your only real big dropper of the week. Yeah. I'm done with this section.

Image


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POD-OLOGY

Division Analysis
Note: Recall that CAN does standings by Win Ratio versus the traditional Win Percentage, denoted in parens. Win Ratio (WR) is a sum of half your wins minus half your losses.

Congrats to Georgia and Cornell for clinching divisions this week.

BATMAN
Leader: Central Florida (+2.0)
Notes: Fantastic. I gone dorked this section up last week. UCF did not clinch their division as a result of their win over #8 Virginia Tech - they just open the potential for a three-way circle jerk with Wake Forest. Wake has one division game left, VT has two. If those three games are wins, then we look to tie-breakers (which would go to best win as there are no three-way common opponents). Things to note - Wake has a win against improving Pitt, VT still has to play Maryland, and UCF has American to play.

SUPERMAN
Division Champion: Georgia

WONDER WOMAN
Division Champion: #4 Georgetown

AQUAMAN
Leader: #1 Penn State (+1.5)
Notes: North Carolina and Xavier both have one loss - UNC lost to Penn State, Xavier lost to UNC. The Musketeers host the Nittany Lions on 28 Jun where the visitors can clinch a division title with a win. A loss and we start doing the whirlwind of tie-breakers. If we assume that the three finish 4-1 in-division, we'd need to bypass the common opponents tie-breaker (as it wouldn't clear up anything) and go to best win. PSU and UNC have wins over current 9-4 LSU, but PSU also has a win over now-6-1 Wisco. X isn't looking too hot.

CAPTAIN AMERICA
Leader: James Madison / Pittsburgh / Wisconsin (+1.5)
Notes: All three teams involved have yet to play each other and they won't until July. This is as up in the air as a divison's going to be. Pitt has seemed to hit their stride - despite having 3 losses, they are to three traiditional upper echelon teams by a combined 6 runs.

THOR
Division Champion: #10 Cornell

HULK
Division Champion: #2 Ohio

IRON MAN
Division Champion: #5 American

SOLOMON GRUNDY
Leader: #4 Richmond (+2.0)
Notes: 16 July. Winner take all between Richmond and Embry-Riddle.

THE RIDDLER
Leader: #9 Maryland (+2.0)
Notes: Hooray for ANOTHER winner take all game. Minnesota hosts Maryland on 14 Jul at Goddard. Should be fireworks for that one.

LEX LUTHOR
Division Champion: Emory

CAPTAIN COLD
Qualified Leader: Texas / Texas A&M (+1.0)
Notes: The Lone Star Showdown (apparently sponsored by State Farm) is 30 Jun between these division leaders and (bitter?) rivals. The winner gets a leg up in the competition and makes the Bucknell @ Texas game on 21 Jul potentially huge.

Pot 1 Discussion
Now that we're getting to squeaky bum time and division champions are being crowned, it becomes a bit more prudent to look at the whole of Pot 1. Recall that Pot 1 will comprise of the top 18 seeds - so the twelve division winners and the next six best seeded teams.

We won't use the CAN tie-breakers yet for the top 12 and we'll break inter-division ties by overall record and then Colley rating. Please note that the latter is NOT what CAN does, but it makes things a lot easier on the 'Blog.

As it stands right now, your Pot 1 seeds are as follows (x-indicates clinched):

1. Richmond
2. x-Georgetown
3. x-American
4. Maryland
-. x-Ohio
6. x-Cornell
-. Penn State
8. Central Florida
-. James Madison
10. x-Georgia
11. x-Emory
--. Texas A&M

13. North Carolina
14. Dayton
--. Massachusetts
--. Minnesota
17. Boston College
--. Illinois
--. Lousiana State
--. Virginia Tech
--. Wisconsin

Yeah. I noticed that too... that VT could be in Pot 2. Also, if Pitt ends up coming throuh, you'll have JMU potentially in Pot 2, as well. Oof. Let's also laud the fact that Dayton and LSU are STILL here. Great seasons to both teams.

I know it's early, but if seeds hold, I would love another Ohio-North Carolina elimination game. (I don't want any parts of them... didja SEE what Clemson did to us?!?)

Last edited by NINJA Terp, 27/Jun/12, 6:55 am
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Re: [12 SB] NINJABlog, 26 Jun


UNDEFEATED / UNFEATED

Only a handful of teams have come through the regular season undefeated, James Madison in 2011 being the last. Further, none of them have ever won the title, Maryland in 2008 being the most recent undefeated team to make the final game (not that I still think about that final loss... no...). Kiss of Death? Thus far, yeah.

While there's certainly a bit of friendly cheering against those teams to be sure, on the flip side, we don't particularly enjoy seeing teams go winless during the season. Why? Let's face it - it just plain sucks. Despite having the attitude of a beer league, it's way more fun to go 1-13 than 0-14. Plus, the beer tastes a lot better.

The log5 algorithm uses the records collected over 4912 games (with a hat tip to the CAN Archives) to provide predictive percentages.

So I mention that this list is too long... so of course, three teams drop out this past week. Fan-friggin'-tastic.

#2 OHIO, 8-0 / #3 GEORGETOWN, 10-0
Notes: The folks from Athens have taken out Michigan and now set their sights on the Hoyas.
Up Next: 29 Jun, 30%/70% win chance

#4 RICHMOND, 11-0
Notes: Richmond came through the last 'Game of the Season' - and followed that up with a solid win over Minnesota. A few easy ones coming up, but they do have a division game against ERAU looming... which is for the division. They also end with surprising #6 Dayton.
Up Next: 10 Jul @ Tulane, 96% win chance
14-0 Log5 chance: 64%

We've got one unfeated left...

#70 IOWA, 0-10
Notes: You gotta cheer for the Hawkeyes. The streak is now at 26 straight. The last four games will be a challenge as three of them are top 25 teams. Best statistical shot is Indiana to close the season.
Up Next: 29 Jun @ Michigan

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FIVE THINGS I THINK I THINK
1. I think that Pittsburgh has quietly put together a solid season, even if they're not getting a lot of pub (though really, aren't I the one responsible for said pub? IRONY!). Putting up 97 (!) runs in their last three games isn't something to laugh at (though they did put up 6 in the two before that). They currently look locked into Pod 2 with a chance at a division title.

2. I think that I need more explanation on the Embry-Riddle - Michigan State game. Rumor has it that it was postponed due to... wind? I wasn't aware of a tropical depression coming through the area, so I'm looking forward to hearing from romeobravo for an explanation.

3. I think that Bucknell and Indiana could be a Group's worst nightmare. At .500 right now, both have a chance to be right on the 36/37 line. A weeknight upset and all of a sudden, they're stuck in Pot 3. Also, is anyone else hoping that Xavier and ohio are in the same Group?

4. I think that I can only do Ray's The Steaks once in a blue moon. After the 20-ish ounce El Dialbo that I had, I could have napped for two days. Plus, they really know their shiznit - the waiter was talking to me about the chemical breakdown of tendons while I was ordering. I can't wait to go back.

5. I think that this tourney format is going to be very exciting. It has some wrinkles to work out, sure, but let's give it some time to grow. I'll tell you that I'l be riveted to games on Sunday to see if we've got any three-way ties.


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LOOKING AHEAD
This section will preview games between highly ranked teams. At a minimum, the combined Colley ratings of teams involved must be less than 30; other aspects, such as division implications, will also be considered.

#3 Georgetown [-4] @ #2 Ohio
I'll try to remember to fill this in later, although methinks that Rob might know this off the top of his head.

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Re: [12 SB] NINJABlog, 26 Jun


Ninja, American did not lose to Bucknell. They beat Bucknell. It was Navy that they lost to.
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Re: [12 SB] NINJABlog, 26 Jun


Central Florida is a legit team, and I'm not just saying that because they beat us. All of their guys are solid hitters, and the female they had in RC is one of the best females in the league. I've heard from other people that their weakness is that they're not very deep beyond their top 10. So I'm guessing that the games they lost were b/c they were missing a bunch of them. But they did seem to have all of their tournament players there last night (and they only batted 10). Granted, we hit like crap and made some costly errors. We're so deep that usually that doesn't hurt us...you just can't do it against a good team like UCF. They're going to go a surprisingly long way in the tournament, but I'd love to get a rematch against them with our top 10.
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Re: [12 SB] NINJABlog, 26 Jun


quote:

OhYouAteOneToo wrote:

Ninja, American did not lose to Bucknell. They beat Bucknell. It was Navy that they lost to.



Thanks. Updated.
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Re: [12 SB] NINJABlog, 26 Jun


quote:

NINJA Terp wrote:
LOOKING AHEAD
This section will preview games between highly ranked teams. At a minimum, the combined Colley ratings of teams involved must be less than 30; other aspects, such as division implications, will also be considered.

#3 Georgetown [-4] @ #2 Ohio
I'll try to remember to fill this in later, although methinks that Rob might know this off the top of his head.




Ohio and Georgetown have never played in CAN Softball.
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Re: [12 SB] NINJABlog, 26 Jun


just curious why some teams have a number next to them and others do not, why is Ohio not #5, what does that mean? Same for the teams on the bubble.

1. Richmond
2. x-Georgetown
3. x-American
4. Maryland
-. x-Ohio
6. x-Cornell
-. Penn State
8. Central Florida
-. James Madison
10. x-Georgia
11. x-Emory
--. Texas A&M

13. North Carolina
14. Dayton
--. Massachusetts
--. Minnesota
17. Boston College
--. Illinois
--. Lousiana State
--. Virginia Tech
--. Wisconsin
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Re: [12 SB] NINJABlog, 26 Jun


quote:

apd09 wrote:

just curious why some teams have a number next to them and others do not, why is Ohio not #5, what does that mean? Same for the teams on the bubble.



It means that they're tied on Win Ratio - e.g. Ohio and Maryland have the same Win Ratio.

I could have applied the CAN tie-break rules, but felt it better to get this out as I was already late (applying them would have taken another 30 minutes to an hour). I will start applying them either next week or the week after such that subsequent editions will be more accurate.

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Re: [12 SB] NINJABlog, 26 Jun


Thanks for the support, OhYouAteOneToo.

"#5 American - how do you lose to a struggling Navy team that's a middle of the road team? Sure, they have their moments and they have their fans, but really? Were the signs there when you only beat Bucknell by 1? Was it a letdown?"

Navy is not struggling. We are pacing ourselves.



Last edited by OldAndGnarlyGoat, 26/Jun/12, 2:06 pm
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Re: [12 SB] NINJABlog, 26 Jun


"#5 American - how do you lose to a struggling Navy team that's a middle of the road team? Sure, they have their moments and they have their fans, but really?"

That's why they play the game, Ninja. That's why they play the game.

There are many long-term posters on this forum who know that Navy can be counted on for several pretty great "moments" every season. I still believe (and am still listening)!

Cheers!
DJ



---
He who laughs last...thinks slowest! Go Navy!
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